For over a century, the Labour Party has been an unrivaled political force across Wales. The era-defining moments of 20th-century Welsh history, ranging from the 1926 General Strike, the Tryweryn reservoir campaign of the 1950s and 60s, the Miner’s Strike of 1984-1985, and the process of devolution that began in 1997, have all (in one way or another) been shaped by the political dreadnought that was the Welsh Labour Party.

At the time of writing this statement, a few days before the 2026 Senedd Election, it seems that this dominance is drawing to a close. It is now no longer a question of what government Welsh Labour will form in the Senedd, but if Welsh Labour will even be part of a coalition government at all.

Wales is at a crossroads. The party that has effectively governed Wales formally and informally for the last century is now struggling to keep its head above the proverbial clear red water that has historically kept it afloat. Dragged down partly by their bosses in Westminster and partly by their dismal record in tackling any of the systematic issues such as poverty, healthcare, education, and housing that plague Welsh society, the seeds of the Labour Party’s betrayal of the miners during the great strike of 1984-1985 and the gradual watering down of its socialist politics are now bearing fruit. The era of Wales as a Labour voting, softly unionist nation is now drawing to a close, and those in Welsh Labour have only themselves to blame.

In place of this image of Wales as a Labour voting, softly unionist nation emerge two visions of Wales which have both emerged from a fourty year period of decline following the defeat of the Miner’s Strike. On the one hand, we have Plaid Cymru and the Greens, who espouse a socially-liberal, progressive idea of the Welsh nation that they hope to implement through further public spending and wielding what few powers the Senedd actually has to address the glaring issues of Welsh society. On the other hand, we have Reform UK, who loudly promote a reheated Thatcherite platform and muscular British unionism that is free from the stigma of being associated with Toryism in Wales.

Both of these images of Wales have popular buy-in from the public. The Plaid Cymru-Green image of progressive Wales emerged from the post-Corbyn defeat of 2019 and speaks to the younger politically disenfranchised population who traditionally have made up the Labour Party’s base. The Reform UK image of unionist Wales emerged from two decades of austerity and continuous decline and speaks to the older politically disenfranchised population, who at one point were also the Labour Party’s base in Wales, and the collapsing Tory vote that we saw in the 2024 General Election. They are now emboldened by the pervasive right wing elements of Welsh society that have always existed and were waiting for their chance to emerge into the political mainstream in Wales.

Fourty years of deindustrialisation followed by austerity have produced these two ideas of the Welsh nation. The Plaid Cymru-Green coalition hopes to tackle the deep rooted issues of Wales by more public spending with what little powers it will have in the Senedd to raise funds, and whilst they are likely to implement some welcome policies relating to childcare, steps towards utility nationalisation and new surgical hubs they will also likely run into the political and economic wall that is Welsh devolution, especially after throwing out Westminster Labour’s Welsh underlings from their throne of thirty years. Reform UK hopes to utilise the Senedd to legitimise their racist and reactionary politics through popular buy in, attack the Welsh language and dismantle the last remnants of the 20th century welfare state in Wales to serve the interests of Capital in Wales, all of which will be in service to their next run at Westminster in 2029.

It is neither a coincidence nor an accident of history that these two ideas of what Wales should be are emerging now. The struggle for socialism that defined 20th century Welsh history and its catastrophic defeat in 1985 has produced this crossroads. The progressives of Plaid Cymru and the Greens or the reactionary unionists of Reform UK struggling over the future of Wales demonstrate this fact. The national question in Wales is still unresolved and will remain unresolved until the economic question of Wales has been resolved.

Whilst Plaid Gomiwnyddol Cymru welcomes the idea of a coalition of progressive elements in Welsh society defeating Reform UK, we are also clear that this cannot be a moment where (whatever the outcome) all of the Left’s energy in Wales is focused into an election only to dissipate afterwards. It is vital to ask the question of what’s next after this election.

No matter the outcome, it is now of critical importance for Welsh communists to now begin organising for the independence of the working class in Wales, as opposed to yet another broad left coalition that will inevitably disenfranchise segments of the Welsh working class once the limits of parliamentarianism reveal themselves. If there is anything that the history of Welsh Labour can show us, it is that the struggle for socialism cannot be achieved through parliamentary means alone and that the demands of the working class in Wales have frequently been watered down by broad church political parties in the name of electoral viability. Whatever the outcome of this election, it is now clear that the stranglehold Welsh Labour have traditionally held on the Welsh working class is coming to its end, and so it is vital that this chance to reshape Welsh political consensus is not wasted on yet another attempt at a broad coalition that goes nowhere and results in us being in a similar situation in 2030. The next four years must be spent building up the independent organisation of the working class in Wales, like the work that the Welsh Underground Network and ACORN Caerdydd have done, so that when the next election comes around the Left will be negotiating any anti-Reform coalitions from a position of strength, not weakness.

Plaid Gomiwnyddol Cymru would also point out that this election should be a point of reflection for those on the Welsh Left unwilling to take seriously the national question in Wales. It would be mistaken to argue that all support that Plaid Cymru has received since October 2025 Caerphilly by-election translates to a support for Welsh independence, but it is inarguable that the younger and more progressive elements of Welsh society are much more amenable to the idea of Welsh independence and sovereignty. Whilst this must not devolve into tailing these elements, we must point out that the turn to a progressive Welsh national identity amongst younger progressive sections of Welsh society stems from experiencing a long period of deindustrialisation, austerity and witnessing the rabid British unionism espoused by those amongst Reform UK and the Tory Party.

It is our argument that this rabid unionism is not an aberration of the current moment but rather the logical outcome of how British capitalism and imperialism have developed and that we are seeing it become increasingly reactionary and fascistic as the British union becomes unable to solve the crisises of it’s own making. Attempts to ignore the national question in Wales by dogmatically appealing to a vague idea of socialist internationalism or progressive federalism fail to see this moment for what it is: there is an increasing divide between a progressive nationalist bloc in Wales made up of younger voters and an increasingly reactionary unionist bloc made up of older voters, which will only become more apparent with time. It is no coincidence that our political project emerged as young Marxist-Leninists who were dissatisfied with the argument for unionism from the previous century. It is the task of communists in Wales to intervene in this political divide to point out that the national question in Wales can only be resolved through the implementation of socialism founded upon a programme by the working class for the working class.

We also welcome that this election is a moment where Welsh politics is being taken seriously and that the Left across Wales is seriously reckoning with the conditions that have produced the far right. No matter the outcome of the election, whether it is a Plaid Cymru or Reform UK government that forms in the Senedd, it is clear now that the focus of the Left in Wales must be aimed towards building up the independence of radical working class organisations capable of fighting back against the interests of Capital. An election win against Reform not stop the underlying causes of the growth in the far right, nor will it change the terrain in favour of socialist politics in Wales. What must be clear now is that politics and the organising of the working class in Wales cannot take place every five or so years at the ballot box, but must be a living, breathing and independent movement ready and capable of delivering the independent Welsh socialist republic.

We have four years until the next Senedd election in 2030, where the political terrain of Wales will be dramatically different. 2031 will be the 200th year anniversary of the Merthyr Rising, in which the working class of Wales took the first steps towards their own liberation and confronted the capitalists that ruled over them. Whilst we are under no illusions that a movement of similar strength will be built by 2031, it should serve as an inspiration for all communists going forward. The Welsh socialist republic will not be built at the ballot box, nor from yet another aimless broad left coalition aimed at stopping the far right at election time. The Welsh socialist republic will not be built at the ballot box, but upon the independent organs of the Welsh working class. It is now time to start building them.